We are delighted to bring you a series of economic reviews from Roger Martin-Fagg, who many of you will recall from his engaging presentations at our Forums in 2015 and 2017.
He is a behavioural economist who believes that economic forecasting is an art, not a science and that it is crucial to estimate the nature, size and impact of ‘animal spirits’ when looking forwards.
He believes that Government cannot control the economy; it can only influence the behaviour of economic agents. He was one of the few who forecast the depth of the 2008/9 recession based on his anticipation of the behaviour of the banking system. He thinks it is better to be broadly right than precisely wrong when forecasting the future!
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